Risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes in Jamaica: a cross-sectional study of national surveillance data.

Objectives: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 cases in Jamaica and to explore the risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 from 9 March to 31 December 2020. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of national surveillance data was conducted using confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jamaica. Definitions of a confirmed case, disease severity, and death were based on World Health Organization guidelines. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used to determine association with outcomes. Logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of severe COVID-19. Results: This analysis included 12 169 cases of COVID-19 (median age, 36 years; 6 744 females [ 55.4%]) of which 512 cases (4.2%) presented with severe disease, and of those, 318 patients (62.1%) died (median age at death, 71.5 years). Severe disease was associated with being male (OR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7) and 40 years or older (OR, 6.5; 95% CI, 5.1-8.2). COVID-19 death was also associated with being male (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7), age 40 years or older (OR, 17.9; 95% CI, 11.6-27.7), and in the Western versus South East Health Region (OR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3). Conclusions: The findings of this cross-sectional analysis indicate that confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jamaica were more likely to be female and younger individuals, whereas COVID-19 deaths occurred more frequently in males and older individuals. There is increased risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes beginning at age 40, with males disproportionately affected. COVID-19 death also varied by geographic region. This evidence could be useful to other countries with similar settings and to policymakers charged with managing outbreaks and health.

Risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes in Jamaica: a cross-sectional study of national surveillance data / Factores de riesgo asociados a la COVID-19 grave en Jamaica: estudio transversal de datos nacionales de vigilancia / Fatores de risco associados a desfechos graves da COVID-19 na Jamaica: estudo transversal de dados de vigilância nacional

[ABSTRACT]. Objectives. To describe the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 cases in Jamaica and to explore the risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 from 9 March to 31 December 2020. Methods. A cross-sectional analysis of national surveillance data was conducted using confirmed COVID-19 cases in Jamaica. Definitions of a confirmed case, disease severity, and death were based on World Health Organization guidelines. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used to determine association with outcomes. Logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of severe COVID-19. Results. This analysis included 12 169 cases of COVID-19 (median age, 36 years; 6 744 females [ 55.4%]) of which 512 cases (4.2%) presented with severe disease, and of those, 318 patients (62.1%) died (median age at death, 71.5 years). Severe disease was associated with being male (OR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7) and 40 years or older (OR, 6.5; 95% CI, 5.1-8.2). COVID-19 death was also associated with being male (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7), age 40 years or older (OR, 17.9; 95% CI, 11.6-27.7), and in the Western versus South East Health Region (OR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3). Conclusions. The findings of this cross-sectional analysis indicate that confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jamaica were more likely to be female and younger individuals, whereas COVID-19 deaths occurred more frequently in males and older individuals. There is increased risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes beginning at age 40, with males disproportionately affected. COVID-19 death also varied by geographic region. This evidence could be useful to other countries with similar settings and to policymakers charged with managing outbreaks and health.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivos. Describir las características y los resultados de los casos de COVID-19 en Jamaica y explorar los factores de riesgo asociados a la COVID-19 grave desde el 9 de marzo hasta el 31 de diciembre del 2020. Métodos. Se realizó un análisis transversal de datos nacionales de vigilancia a partir de los casos confirma- dos de COVID-19 en Jamaica. Las definiciones de caso confirmado, gravedad de la enfermedad y muerte se basaron en las directrices de la Organización Mundial de la Salud. Para determinar la asociación con los criterios de valoración se utilizó la prueba de χ2 y la prueba exacta de Fisher. Se usaron modelos de regresión logística para determinar los factores predictivos de la COVID-19 grave. Resultados. Se incluyeron en el análisis 12 169 casos de COVID-19 (mediana de edad, 36 años; 6 744 mujeres [55,4%]), de los que 512 (4,2%) fueron de enfermedad grave. De estos pacientes, 318 (62,1%) fall- ecieron (mediana de edad al morir, 71,5 años). Se observó una asociación de la enfermedad grave con el sexo masculino (OR de 1,4; IC del 95 %, 1,2-1,7) y con la edad igual o superior a 40 años (OR de 6,5; IC del 95 %, 5,1-8,2). La muerte por COVID-19 también mostró una asociación con el sexo masculino (OR de 1,4; IC del 95%, 1,1-1,7), con la edad igual o superior a 40 años (OR de 17,9; IC del 95%, 11,6-27,7) y con la Región de Atención de Salud Occidental en comparación con la Sudoriental (OR de 1,7; IC del 95%, 1,2-2,3). Conclusiones. Los resultados de este análisis transversal indican que los casos confirmados de COVID-19 en Jamaica correspondieron una mayor probabilidad a mujeres y personas más jóvenes, mientras que las muertes por COVID-19 fueron más frecuentes en varones y personas de mayor edad. Hay un mayor riesgo de evolución desfavorable de la COVID-19 a partir de los 40 años, que afecta de manera desproporcionada a los varones. Las muertes por COVID-19 también variaron según la región geográfica. Esta evidencia podría ser de utilidad para otros países con entornos similares y para los responsables de la formulación de políticas en materia de gestión de brotes y salud.

[RESUMO]. Objetivos. Descrever as características e os desfechos dos casos de COVID-19 na Jamaica e explorar os fatores de risco associados à COVID-19 grave de 9 de março a 31 de dezembro de 2020. Métodos. Análise transversal de dados de vigilância nacional usando casos confirmados de COVID-19 na Jamaica. As definições de caso confirmado, gravidade da doença e morte foram baseadas nas recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde. Foram usados testes de qui-quadrado e exato de Fisher para determinar a associação com os desfechos. Modelos de regressão logística foram usados para deter- minar os preditores de COVID-19 grave. Resultados. Esta análise incluiu 12.169 casos de COVID-19 (idade mediana: 36 anos; 6 744 do sexo feminino [55,4%]), dos quais 512 casos (4,2%) apresentaram doença grave; desses, 318 pacientes (62,1%) morreram (idade mediana ao morrer: 71,5 anos). A doença grave estava associada a ser do sexo masculino (razão de chances [RC]: 1,4; intervalo de confiança de 95% [IC 95%]: 1,2–1,7) e ter 40 anos ou mais de idade (RC: 6,5; IC 95%: 5,1–8,2). A morte por COVID-19 também estava associada a ser sexo masculino (RC: 1,4; IC 95%: 1,1–1,7), ter 40 anos ou mais (RC: 17,9; IC 95%: 11,6–27,7) e estar na Região Sanitária Oeste em comparação com a Região Sanitária Sudeste (RC: 1,7; IC 95%: 1,2–2,3). Conclusões. Os achados desta análise transversal indicam que a probabilidade de casos confirmados de COVID-19 na Jamaica era maior em indivíduos do sexo feminino e mais jovens, ao passo que as mortes por COVID-19 ocorreram com mais frequência em indivíduos do sexo masculino e mais velhos. Há um risco maior de resultados desfavoráveis em relação à COVID-19 a partir dos 40 anos, e indivíduos do sexo masculino são desproporcionalmente mais afetados. A morte por COVID-19 também variou de acordo com a região geográ- fica. Essas evidências podem ser úteis para outros países com cenários semelhantes e para os formuladores de políticas encarregados de manejar surtos e gerenciar a saúde.

Lessons Learned From the Implementation of HIV Biological-Behavioral Surveys of Key Populations in the Caribbean.

In the Caribbean region, HIV prevalence is high among key population (KP) groups, such as sex workers and men who have sex with men. However, there is a lack of high-quality, population-level data estimating HIV prevalence and population sizes of KPs. The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief has funded and completed five bio-behavioral surveillance (BBS) surveys using respondent-driven sampling methodology to target KP in the English-speaking Caribbean region. We describe the experience of implementing bio-behavioral surveys in the Caribbean region and document the context, processes, successes, and challenges, and make recommendations for future survey implementation. Successes include the provision of estimates of nationally representative HIV data and KP size estimates to improve HIV programming and provision of tools for routinization of BBS. Challenges include small KP sizes, the legal context, and the cost and speed of implementation. Future bio-behavioral surveys should include well-planned formative assessments and stakeholder involvement.